Thursday, November 03, 2005

The 'U vs The Techies

Da Realist:

we're all tied again. hopefully staying up past 1am will cause you two to make a couple of mistakes so i can finally pull away. and now the picks...

tennessee at notre dame - normally i would be wary of picking against a team like tennessee. they are a wounded animal right now having lost 3 straight games. think they want to lose 4 straight? me neither. they may go to a bowl, but it won't be a bowl anyone cares or even knows about. going to the WALDINI BOWL won't impress recruits, but beating the fighting irish under the gaze of touchdown jesus would. make no mistake about it, this IS their bowl game. but there are 4 good reasons why i don't think they'll get it done.
1) if notre dame wins out, they will be guaranteed an invite to a BCS bowl. BCS bowl = $14 mil, non-BCS bowl = $4 mil, all of which they keep. for those of you not counting, that's 10 million reasons to play your a$$ off.
2) notre dame is coming off a bye week. this is the only team i know that has TWO bye weeks in the same season! nevertheless, that gives the irish an additional week to prepare for UT.
3) gerald riggs is still out.
4) too much turmoil in knoxville. the OC resigns,but still has play-calling duties...with fulmer. (?)when has phil fulmer been perceived as an offensive genius? my guess is that was just a line to get people off his back. randy will still be the main signal caller, just not officially. too much indecision, too much pressure. NOTRE DAME.

wisconsin at penn state - wisconsin is a true smash-mouth club that relies mostly on winning the line of scrimmage and running the ball. but they are going to happy valley where 105K will be rocking the very foundation in anticipation of 10-1 season, Big 10 championship and a BCS bid. too much to overcome.PENN STATE

california at oregon - california has a big game next week against USC. normally this would be screamingLET DOWN ALERT!! but i'm still waiting on the bears to put it together. this will be a good test before trying to topple a dynasty next week. at 7-1, oregon is on track to finish with 10 wins - it's only loss to you-know-who. california will have to go to a place, autzen stadium, that knocked the trojans back for a half before they recovered. does california have the grit to go there and beat a good ducks team? they certainly have the talent. i'll go with...CALIFORNIA.

nc state at florida state - the noles win this game, they are guaranteed to go to jacksonville for the acc championship. if not, they'll be forced to win a game against the underrated clemson tigers at death valley. if they are smart, they will handle business this weekend. but here are couple of factors working against them.1) the noles are a hurt team. injuries are prevalent throughout the defense and we're still trying to overcome the loss of our best corner, cromartie. 2) although they struggle offensively, nc state has a really good defense. they should have beaten v-tech earlier in the season, and they would have if not for turnovers. they actually outgained the hokies that game. this game makes me nervous because the noles are such a jekyll and hyde team. but i'm picking them mostly out of loyalty than anything else. FSU

miami at virginia tech - THE GAME. this has the potential to be every bit as good as USC at NOTRE DAME and TEXAS at OHIO STATE. these are two evenly matched, highly motivated teams with something to prove. miami wants national respect, and so do the hokies in a different way. but this is not the same miami team we are used to seeing. these are NICEGUYS! no one spouting off at the mouth, no braggadocio dances, no recruiting violations and mostly NO INTIMIDATION. where are the real canes??? this team lost to a noles team they should have beaten, struggled early with north carolina and has never really looked like they are firing on all cylinders. sinorice moss is hurt and so is eric winston. tyrone moss does not have that game breaking speed that put the fear of GOD in opponents like willis mcgahee and clinton portis did. there really is no ed reed or jon vilma on this team (at least not yet). vtech is solid all the way through. their defense is just as good as miami's and they can move the ball offensively. i don't think vick will have a heisman night, but i do think he'll be effective enough. i think this will be a defensive battle until v-tech breaks away late, similar to the boston collegegame. VIRGINIA TECH

Gangsta D:

UT @ ND - Don't care. Irish.
'Sconcin @ PSU - Don't care. Badgers
Cal @ Ducks - Don't care. Cal
Pack @ 'Noles - Don't care. FSU
The 'U @ Hokies - Don't care. Hoki--don't make me laugh.

No way I'm going against the boys no matter what. Here is how we can beatthem.

Offense - They're defense may be just as fast as ours. So we HAVE to run the ball straight at 'em. The run has to be established from the get go. The O-line has to come ready to play. If they shut down our running game, it's game over. But, if we can run effectively that opens everything up. They haven't seen speed on the boundary like ours all year. If we run effectively that will set up the play action. We can go down field or down the middle to Olson. Olson has to have a Shockey-Winslow type performance. They will be looking to stop the run and take away the deep threat. He's got to come up major. Kyle CANNOT make dumb mistakes. If it's not there on his second read, the ball's got to be gone. Their defense is too good. He's got to take shots down the field, but he can't just throw the ball up for grabs. he's got the big arm and he's accurate from short to medium range. He's got to play a very heady game.

Defense - We can't out quick ourselves. That means rushing too far up the field, over running plays, and missing tackles. We've got to play bump and run. I've seen too many Tech WRs WIDE open this year. We have the speed in the secondary to recover. With that said, the LBs have to play zone and keep everything in front of them. If they play man, Vick and Imoh will kill us. They've got to disrupt the middle and keep Vick from breaking long runs up the field. He's beaten every defense to the corner so far this year, and he can beat us but not for TDs. The most important unit is theD-line. They have to pressure Vick, but do it up the middle forcing him to the sidelines where hopefully our LBs will be waiting. They've got to clog his passing lanes and harass him. They probably won't sack him and that shouldn't be primary focus. They have to get him out of his comfort zone. If he can sit in the pocket and throw all day, it's a wrap.

So obviously, I'm picking the boys. This will be a tremendous victory if we can get it done. I know we can do it, it's just a matter of execution.


Tenn@ND - For the first time in the Commission weekly pick off history, I am picking against the boys. You named all the reasons Realist and knowing the Ainge is the starter doesn't exactly evoke shades of Shuler, Manning,Martin, or C Clausen. We all know anything can happen but reality says Irish keep marching. Dayum you Tenn (sniff) you broke my heart. IRISH

Wis@PSU - Picking the Nittany Lions b/c they play 10 times better at home than they do on the road. Although dont sleep on Calhoun, he's a beast.NITTANY LIONS

CAL@ORE - I was about to go against the grain and pick Oregon but realized Kelly Clemens is out for the year. Autzen is one of the noisest stadiumsand Bellioti is a good coach but losing Clemens is a lot to overcome. BEARS

NCState@FSU - Mentee vs Mentor, ex-offensive coach vs new offensivecoach....too bad the Noles are better than NC this year. NOLES

MIA@VT - Aw the game that will spark a flurry of emails btw the Realist andGangsta on Monday, Nov 7 :-). Both of you present thought-provoking, eye-opening, valid arguments about why both teams will win. Unfortunately neither means anything to me in picking the winner, lol. Gimme Va Tech b/c that defense is a monsta.

FYI, the Waldini Bowl doesnt accept 5 loss teams. We accept only undefeated and one loss teams from the SIAC :-)

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